Democrats are the party of college-educated women and the men they live with
Electronic Superhighway by Nam June Paik
In the 80s my teacher asked, “How did it happen that the Republican party ended slavery yet Black people are Democrats?” That was his introduction to the process of party realignment in the US. In the 1960s the Democrats supported Civil Rights and the party lines were redrawn. And the teacher told us we are due for another realignment.
This election we saw a gender gap emerge among Asian, Black and Latino voters. However this is not simply men against women, because Harris lost suburban women to Trump who is openly sexist. So what happened to the Democratic party? There’s been a political realignment within the parties. Whether you like Trump or not, it’s clear what he stands for. But the Democrats are not so clear, and they’re lost in the realignment.
1. The Democrats are no longer the party of minorities and women
Asian voters. In a Biden/Trump matchup, Asian voters favored Trump. And it’s Republican-appointed judges who shot down affirmative action, a move that helped Asian applicants to college and laid bare the legacy admissions and athletic recruiting preferences for rich white kids.
Hispanic voters. Cubans vote Republican. And there’s a general trend among Hispanics away from democrats. For example, areas where there’s a Hispanic majority, like Fresno CA which went Republican for the first time since 2004.
Black voters. As usual, Black women voted more than 90% Democrat. But 21% of Black men voted for Trump due to the perfunctory way Harris addressed economic concerns.
Jewish voters. Jews have voted for liberal issues rather than Jewish issues per se. But in this election some voted for Jewish issues: anti-semitism and Israel. To be sure, Jews still voted 80% democrat, but Trump did 50% better with New York Jews in 2024 than he did in 2020.
Women. White women have a history of being tenuous participants in the female coalition of Democrats. This election was consisten with larger trends: Black women and college-educated white women voted for Harris, but the majority of white women supported Trump.
2. Democrats refuse to acknowledge shifting party lines
The old lines of gender, race and age that defined Republicans and Democrats no longer apply. States that supported Trump also voted to protect abortion rights. Men voted for Trump while still identifying as a minority. And Gen Z, renowned advocates for diversity and tolerance, defied the rule of thumb that young people vote for Democrats.
Democrats refuse to accept that voters care about different issues than they did in 1960, the last time parties realigned. Democrats have become the party of the college educated. And instead of finding new ways to connect with voters, Democrats campaigned by shaming people – telling women their vote was private and telling Black men it’s lazy if they don’t vote. And democrats were dismissive to the majority of Latino voters who associate immigration with crime.
This is a good time to point out that just because someone has a college degree doesn’t make them right. And while immigrants actually do not incraese crime, immigrant populations decrease crime in white areas and have no effect in Latino areas. So a gap in perception starts to make sense.
I’ve been shocked by Democratic commentators making blanket statements about how Trump voters are stupid about immigration. And everything else. Look. Trump won the popular vote, and it is simply not true that the majority of Americans are stupid. What’s true is the majority of Americans are not voting on the issues Democrats want them to vote on.
3. Democrats are the party fighting against change
Today the Democrats are people desperately trying to hold on to their old ways. In 2016 they rigged the primary so Bernie Sanders would lose to Hilary Clinton. And covering up Biden’s dementia also dishonest. Then, working behind closed doors to get rid of Biden, big donors insisited on picking their own candidate without giving voters a chance.
There’s something to be said for transparency. Trump is admitting he’ll be an autocrat. The Democrats don’t admit they run an oligarchy.
When we read a misspelled word, as long as the first and last letters are correct, we tend to miss the glitch in the middle. I think this is how we’ll see the Trump presidency: Biden is like transposed letters that will make the Trump era read like 12 years. And history books will look at these twelve years as the realignment of a post-feminist, post-affirmative action politics.
Addendum: One of you brought to my attention that there’s a different way to look at the Black vote. So, this is a graph from the New York Times that shows the gap between Black and white support for Harris. So, maybe a better statement of the Democrats is they are the party for Black people and college-educated white women.
For my part, I won’t call anyone stupid, but I won’t refrain from commenting in person if someone spouts fake news from social media, even if all I do is point out, “That’s from social media.”
I won’t talk politics with a MAGA person, but I will talk sports and hobbies for us to get to know each other. To me, America means mingling—like at college during my youth.
There is a time for arguments, and organizing, and grand inspiring logic AND there is a time for simply being a living example.
What I can do is role model off Thomas Jefferson who, after role modelling being civil, from suppers with three great men, went on to be civil at his home and later in the White House. Here’s a quote from Coy Barefoot’s book on Jefferson:
Each time you enter a room, attend a practise or a meeting—in fact, every time you involve yourself in the life of another human being—you have an opportunity to leave a token of your own legacy behind.
This seems to be the way lately. We can be friendly and discuss all kinds of things with others, but politics has become the third rail in social gatherings that we either know or suspect may contain mixed views. I see it in my mother’s assisted living place, my yoga class, etc, etc. Perhaps if I didn’t live in a swing state, it might be different but I doubt it.
I think it’s really different living in a swing state. In the past 12 years I lived in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts. The election is nearly invisible in Boston. But I still get political texts from Wisconsin every week — even when there’s no election and I have told them I don’t live in Wisconsin. Every conversation is so prescious in a swing state.
Hope — I find this to be true in my very deep blue state as well. Don’t ask. Don’t tell.
Frankly it can be a little awkward. I do prefer chatting with people with whom I can freely state my opinions. But family is family. Ha!
That’s a great quote.
Thanks for sharing.
This is a great sentiment. The person who edited this post argued back and forth with me the whole day which made the post much better. But I’m not sure I would have thought the arguments were intresting if it weren’t helping me to write a post.
In that vein, Thomas Jefferson was a slaver, and he didn’t even free the people he enslaved when he died. I am pointing it out because you specifically said he was civil at his home. I mean, the guy is very complicated, and I don’t think I’d use the word civil.
Great point, we have to be interested to be able to listen, particularly to things we disagree with. Outside of being directly useful to you I wonder what would have been interesting enough to keep you engaged to something you thought was wrong. The brain can only handle so much of it before cognitive dissonance kicks in. Ill try to remember that over the next few days I’m sure there will be a lot of things I don’t want to hear.
Tatianna, I added the graph you sent me. As an addendum. I appreciate you arguing with me all day while I was writing the post. The graph is the least I can do :)
I have some thoughts, but instead I’m going to let this marinate for a while.
This was insightful.
Thank you.
I agree that the Democratic party has gotten pretty cynical and it hasn’t paid off. I also think we get overwhelmed with how ugly things are right now. David Schnarch in Brain Talk has some good insights into personal mind mapping that might also apply to social mind mapping.
I am curious isn’t it the Democrat party rather than the Democratic party. We have a democratic process of election. It is confusing to me that almost everyone uses the Democratic party rather than the Democrat party.
I don’t think it matters when the usage is ubiquitous. But when the D is capitalized the usage is very clear. It’s like a linguistic backup plan.
Penelope
Dear Penelope– Thank you for the best post-election analysis I have read so far. Kind of a roadmap for the soul. I was lost and now I’m found. As I think Lucy from ‘Peanuts’ was wont to say, “Splains a lot.”
Great reflection. Very helpful in understanding how half of America can’t be stupid and evil, and it’s patronizing to believe they might be.
I’ve had a hard time getting my brain around the Trump support. I mean, he simulated a blow job at a campaign rally. Gross. However, I heard Adam Kinzinger on the news (he is an anti-Trump Republican) explain it in a way I can finally understand. He’s thinking is that we’ve label everything associated with masculinity as toxic and this is the push back. The readjustment.
For a long time, I’ve thought the pendulum has swung too far when it comes to feminism. I worked with a young guy in his early 30s who I was pretty good friends with. He said guys his age are afraid to even flirt with women because they don’t want to be labeled a freak. I believe males and females are different – but one is not better than the other.
I also think the democrats need to get their act together. It’s not 1992. Boomers really need to step aside. I feel they pushed Hilary on us, Biden on us, and then Harris on us.
So true about Boomers pushing their sub-par Boomers on us!!! It never ends for us, does it? But maybe Gen X has reached a tipping point: it’s the age group that voted most strongly for Trump.
As regards not getting in trouble with woman (I’m a man) I do fine, just as I do with persons with mental handicaps, disabilities or with folks of a strange race, religion or creed. (I can think of amusing examples from my life) Because if I have a good inner core, then my outer actions will be safe. I don’t have to go around worrying.
As for having a good core, a nice grandmother could instruct you as well I.
I like what you did with the spelling mistake. Masterful.
There’s always a link that gets away when I write a post. This one is so good I have to add it: It’s been hard to count Gen Z ballots because they don’t write in cursive so they can’t sign their name.
https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-voters-struggle-signatures-cast-mail-ballot-problems-2024-11
Wow. I never thought about the inability of many young people who don’t have the ability to write in cursive, struggle with it, or do it very badly when it comes to voting. Here in NY state, your signature is kept on file with the state board of elections. When you vote, you don’t show your ID. You give them your name and address and then sign your name on a tablet. Then your signature is checked with what’s on file. Personally, I would prefer a check of my ID. There’s other info about Gen Z in the article that I found very interesting. Business Insider has the article behind a paywall. The article (at least for the most part) can be read at https://fortune.com/2024/11/07/gen-z-voters-basic-skill-signing-names-vote-counting-chaos-election-official/
Thanks for finding the article.
We had to sign our name in Wisconsin, too.
When my kids sign their name they scribble something becasue that’s what it looks like everyone else is doing: just scribbling. So I can’t even imagine them trying to guess what signature they’re trying to match to vote.
this is what the chinese-american trump voters are saying about living in america. A lot of them are in california and highly -educated workers with a family and marriage intact.
adding it as a point of perspective because a lot of them don’t engage in politics vocally in english. this is translated from chinese:
– A man pretending to be a woman is something you cannot speak out against. You must pretend along with him, and also recognize and support it.
– A census that counts how many Americans are in the U.S. is not in line with the American spirit.
– It’s bad if Russians influence our elections, but it’s good if illegal immigrants vote in our elections.
– 20-year-olds are too young to drink beer, but 18-year-olds are old enough to vote and decide national policies, and 5- or 6-year-old children can decide to change their gender.
– People who have never owned slaves should pay reparations to those who have never been slaves.
– People who have never attended college should pay off the student loans of those who borrowed large sums to get a degree.
– We welcome immigrants with tuberculosis and polio, but you’d better prove that your dog has been vaccinated.
– Scientists and engineers wanting to immigrate to the U.S. must undergo strict vetting procedures; meanwhile, any illiterate gang member who crosses the southern border is welcome.
– A $5 billion border security cost is too high, but a $1.5 trillion “free” healthcare cost is not.
– If you cheat your way into college, you’ll go to jail; but if you cheat your way into this country, you can attend college for free.
– Those who say there’s no such thing as gender difference demand that we elect a female president.
– We see other countries turning to socialism and collapsing, yet we continue to race in that direction.
– Some people are held accountable for things that happened before they were born, while others are not held accountable for the things they do now.
– After criminals are caught, they must be released so they can continue to harm more people; but preventing them from doing so is wrong because it violates their personal rights.
– “Wake up, beautiful country, this ‘Titanic’ has already hit the iceberg, it’s seeping water, and it’s sinking rapidly.”
This is so good and reflects an almost masculine simplicity that has been taken away. I want to ask my friends why are you supporting abuse? Why are you woke? In simple masculine terms there is no answer for this based in evidence and thus we see the tantrums
The title you used is very interesting.
The majority of college educated women marry college-educated men. About 22 percent do not.
The majority of college educated men marry college-educated women. About 17 percent do not.
Is your idea that in the second type of couple both are more likely to be Republican and in the first both are more likely to be Democrat?
Interesting question. I don’t have exact data but I have a hunch. The college-educated women that vote Democrat, while the majority, are not all. The gap among college-educated women is, in part, who is a parent: yes kids Republican, no kids Democrat.
I also hunted around for which demographics support Democrats at rate more than 70%. Here’s the list:
Black 83%
LGBTQ – 83%
Never married women – 71%
Atheist – 74%
Agnostic – 78%
Ages 18-34 in cities – 74%
What this tells me is that Democrats get support from all Black people and white people who are not mainstream and/or don’t have families. (There’s a lot that could be said about how white people are awful at building coalitions with Black people but that’s for another post) The majority of college-educated women get married, quit their fulltime job, and become the primary caretaker of children. I’d guess that if a college-educated woman marries someone without a college degree, then the one with the degree with be the breadwinner. And that would be not mainstream.
So, back to your question: I’d guess that women with a college degree who marry someone without a degree are Democrats. And men with college-degrees who marry someone with no degree are Republicans. This is because the former is probably not mainstream and the latter probably is mainstream.
What do you think?
That is what I was thinking. The term “mainstream” is a good way to think about it.
This is what I like about you, Penelope. Even though you’re a Democrat, you’re not in denial like a lot of Democrats I know. Denying Biden’s dementia, denying issues in the party, denying Democrats can be as autocratic as Trump, etc.
Thank you for your honesty.
Thank you for your insightful post. And I *do* think MAGA Trump voters, as a collective, are not only stupid, but also racist as well. A dangerous combination. And, the best part? It’s not been a week, and the infighting amongst President-Select Donald J. Trump and his Cabinet hopefuls has already begun. Additionally, MAGA Mike Johnson is beginning to walk back the very platform Trump won on – immigration and tariffs – because he knows that business owners are beginning to lay off employees, and withhold Christmas bonuses, because they need to use that money buy up inventory in anticipation of the tariffs that will be imposed on January 21st. He knows that sealing the Mexican-US border will prevent goods from entering the United States, and sink the US economy. He knows that 11 million undocumented immigrants being removed from the United States will decimate MAGA and Republican-owned businesses. Are MAGA voters going to pick the fruits and vegetables, and clean toilets? Don’t think so. MAGA voters are NOW Googling things like, “Are tariffs bad?”, and, “What are tariffs?”, and, “Can I change my vote?” And, you know where those searches are emanating from? States that Trump won, i.e. North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Oklahoma. But, perhaps the most laughable are Latino MAGA voters saying things like, “But, I’m not a criminal. They’re not coming for me.”
There are not enough people voting Democrat in this country for people to continue to criticize everyone else. It’s simple math. The more arrogant the Democrats are in regular discourse, the more trouble they’ll have getting people to vote with them. For Democrats right now, it’s much more important to understand what voters care about than it is to criticize voters for how they vote.
But that is the point, Penelope, they don’t really know what they care about because they are willfully ignorant. I have spoken to people I would consider smart, good people who voted for Trump and am *baffled* at the mental gymnastics they go through to justify it. One actually said that, while they didn’t care for some of the things that were said during the campaign, if Trump were to actually do any of it, they would be the first to turn on him and no longer support him. Trump voters don’t believe what he stands for, or they think he means someone other than them, so it is OK. They are so angry that Kroger has price gouged , even though Biden is being blamed, they want to burn it all down.
People are allowed to do mental gymnastics. People are allowed to be inconsistent thinkers. People are allowed to change their mind. I would venture to say everyone does these things at some point in our life. None of us in a position to say that’s not allowed. It’s just part of being human.
Instead of asking Trump voters to justify their actions to you, ask the democratic party to justify sidestepping the primary for presidential elections in a row. Those are the people who owe you an explanation.
Penelope
Black women (and men) tried to save you all from yourselves but you chose white supremacy. You will all get what you deserve.
It’s way more than white supremacy. Trump ran on an anti-immigration platform and made tremendous inroads with the Latino community. It doesn’t work anymore just to chalk Trump’s success up to racism. White folks don’t need to be saved from themselves. The Democratic party needs to stop breathing its own exhaust, show some intellectual humility, and figure out where it went wrong.
Question what is the difference between legal immigration and illegal immigration?
In the spirit of recognizing when ChatGPT can answer your question just fine, I asked for you:
“The main difference lies in compliance with immigration laws. Legal immigration means individuals have government permission to be in the country, while illegal immigration involves bypassing those formal processes, often leading to fewer rights and potential legal consequences.”
Penelope
At the time I was young, “late to the conversation” as it were, so I couldn’t judge the accuracy of a sentence by a Republican when Ronald Reagan first got an elected. As a dimly recall, I read, “This is payback for all that Hitler salute smashing to the face by (blank)s.”
I mad a mental note. For me, the takeaway was whether you are in power, or out of power: stay humble.
In my middle age, I heard made a note when Jewel sang, “In the end, only kindness matters.”
The Democrats are just the “Not Trump” party now.
There’s so much analysis about the Democrats right now, but I think your one line is the way the most Democrats FEEL about who they are.